2024 Draft Receiver Rankings
It is a special year. Nary has there been a class with so many players who have unique sets of skills and traits. Here's how I break down the position.
Through trial, error, and inspiration from Mike Renner (@PFF_Mike), I have concluded that ranking receivers exclusively by number or tier ignores a good amount of context in how they play and where they would slot into an NFL offense. So, my rankings are based on the position they are best fit for based on their traits, as well as their familiarity with that spot and how much they played it in college. X, Y, and Z (or ‘wr1’, slot, and flanker as they are also known) receivers all have different duties that will change where they are targeted or how much of a priority in the game plan it is to get them the ball. I’ll talk more about this context throughout the list.
X RECEIVERS (WR1s)
Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State (21.5 yrs, 6-3, 208, N/A RAS)
A true blue chip X receiver if I’ve ever seen one; wins deep with body control, size, and great hands. He dictates coverage simply by being on the field, which is important for playing that spot and being generally close to the boundary. Does his damage in turning his routes into catches, not necessarily by being deadly after getting the ball.
Rome Odunze, Washington (21.8 yrs, 6-3, 212, 9.91 RAS)
Another physically dominant, fantastically athletic, smart player. Dictates coverage, turns his routes into catches with good spatial awareness, separation, and poise. Liable to be a vertical threat on every play, and also great at causing conflict for DBs in bunch sets. Excels in that boundary X position because he has the ability to consistently win on routes where he only has 1 way to go, and that is where a lot of slot/flanker type guys end up flailing.
Troy Franklin, Oregon (21.1 yrs, 6-2, 176, 8.18 RAS)
A sleek, smooth, sudden athlete with just enough height and experience in this spot to play it at the NFL level. he is much lighter than the top 2 guys, but he still consistently wins over top. This is due to his fantastic attention to detail, great pacing, and enough speed to get on top and stack a corner playing man. He is a great hand fighter, and will put his whole body in between the DB and the path of the ball while simultaneously tracking it. To me, this shows otherworldly brain/muscle connection and spatial awareness, which are big factors for coming down with the ball on the boundary. He is capable of playing any spot, but I think you start him at X and work your way down from there.
Keon Coleman, Florida State (20.8 yrs, 6-4, 215, 9.18 RAS)
He has been dropping leading into the combine, but I think that slowed after people saw the GPS data for his speed through the ball drills. He’s not gonna put up a 4.4, but DAMN does he get going on tape. He has so much size and momentum going with him that he is a tough cover for anyone. I would LOVE the fit as the X receiver in the Bills offense, the role Gabe Davis played last year. Davis was raw coming out of UCF, but had speed, hands, and toughness. Keon, though still young (20.5 yrs old), has much more polish and spatial awareness. I can see him being an effective target in the MOF on posts and boundary for whoever is lucky enough to be able to chuck the ball up to him or watch him reverse field on a screen (which should be illegal to be able to do at his size).
Adonai Mitchell, Texas (22.4 yrs, 6-2, 205, 9.98 RAS)
Before you start calling blasphemy on me for having AD after Keon Coleman, hear me out. I believe AD has the larger upside, more versatility, and probably will have much more opportunity in different parts of the field which will allow him to score more points and be more productive than Keon. BUT, as an X receiver, I think Keon is better. AD has rare athleticism, wiggle, and pliability to run a larger tree of routes; This makes him someone you would want to move around the formation. To put him at X and keep him there, in my humble opinion, is a sheer waste of talent. Though I put him here because I think he can grow into a dominant boundary player with time and practice, he would slot in as a top 3 flanker on my list as well.
Javon Baker, UCF (22 yrs, 6-1, 202, 7.85)
Javon has some juice. He is an attacker, and plays with an edge of superiority that you LOVE to see from an X. He has a full release package off the line, and whittling that down to his most effective moves for the NFL should give him plenty of tools to beat press and get off the line unhindered. Though he is smooth right from the snap, he wins downfield with how calm he is through his routes. If he didn’t already get enough separation and the DB is stuck in his hip pocket, he will keep them stacked, track the ball, and either pluck it or bucket catch it at the last second. This eliminates the ability for the DB to get his head around with correct timing. Though he needs to work through some extraneous movements and nail down a route plan based on the cover he sees, I believe he can be an effective vertical man beater at this spot.
Bub Means, Pitt (23 yrs, 6-1, 212, 9.7 RAS)
Bub Means shows a lot of good physical traits on tape. He doesn’t have much to go off because of lack of competition, but I think he has a basic set of abilities that can be built on. He has good enough size (6-1, 212) and cuts very smoothly. He played outside at Pitt, and ran a lot of flare outs and other short-med isolated things. Therefore, it is pure projection to say he could dictate coverage and move safeties over from the X spot. My guess is based off him growing in technique and putting to work more understanding in route timing. He may end up playing in a different spot as a result of these limitations, though.
Z RECEIVERS (FLANKER)
1. Malik Nabers, LSU (20.7 yrs, 6-0, 200, N/A RAS)
Fantastic player, I’m sure anyone reading has heard enough about him. Explosive, fast, drops his hips instantly, strong hands, turns DB missteps into big plays. He has too much dynamism to lock him against the sideline. As a coach, I would want him getting lateral with crossers and slants without cutting out the ability to send him downfield. He is best when he can find a soft spot underneath and explode into RAC, or when he can line up on the weak side of the formation and take on a safety or nickel corner 1 on 1. He should be put at flanker and in the slot, and let him run a whole set of routes where he can have both directions to work with on the field.
2. Brian Thomas Jr, LSU (21.4, 6-3, 209, N/A RAS)
Funny enough, Nabers’ receiver buddy at LSU is best playing the same position Malik is. Brian Thomas is long, fast, smooth, and dynamic. Just like Malik, it would be a waste to push his dynamic skillset against the sideline and keep it there. His length needs to be kept moving in a direction, as he uses his momentum to his advantage to pull through tackles. That means crossers, fades, posts, things like that. He doesn’t win vertically in the same way Odunze and MHJ do, he wins more with raw speed and a good eye for tracking the ball. He’s great as a motion man, as it’s basically a wrap if a DB in man can’t get in front of him and disrupt his route early. He is solid running two man games and from bunch sets, where he is usually the underneath release guy. He’s got a mix of vertical talent/size and RAC explosiveness- so let him do both.
3. Ladd McConkey, Georgia (22.3 yrs, 5-11, 187, 8.84 RAS)
This is a talented and smart football player. I believe he got most of his snaps from the slot during his time in college, but what he shows on tape looks like skills that can easily translate to the flanker role. he shows instant acceleration off the line, solid pacing, good timing on cuts to threaten DBs, and solid ability to evade tackles and beat angles in the open field. My best fit for him would be somewhere he can seamlessly move between Y and Z. I would not put him consistently as the strong side receiver, I believe he doesn’t possess the play strength and pliability traits that make one a good winner of the ball in the air. He made up for this dearth of strength by running a 4.39 at the combine- DBs have no choice but to respect the over, even if he can’t consistently win them.
4. Ja’Lynn Polk, Washington (21.8 yrs, 6-2, 190, 9.46 RAS)
Polk brings a little bit less juice than Ladd, and makes up for it in pacing, football IQ, and toughness downfield. He can get his hands on the ball without breaking stride on crossers, he has fantastic pacing and spatial awareness on routes at all levels, and shows ++ toughness on deep balls, where he has no qualms taking a thumping he can feel coming. There’s no real knock on him, all I have is that he won’t be best at traditional X because he lacks strong presence in the air. So, keep him where he played in college on the flank and let him do his thing. I think he will instantly contribute to an NFL offense, so don’t get it twisted- he isn’t low, this class is just so extremely high.
5. Jalen McMillan, Washington (22.3 yrs, 6-0, 200, 9.33 RAS)
Because of the depth at receiver in this draft, someone is going to get this guy in the late 2nd-mid 3rd and it will be ridiculous value. His traits differ from his buddy Ja’Lynn; They are both smart, paced, steady, efficient route runners, but McMillan excels more on deep routes and play action where he can use his speed and silky smooth movement to uncover against the grain of the play. He will make himself small and reduce his shoulder right off the line and GO. He isn’t much of a tackle-breaker or explosive presence with the ball in his hands, so he stays firmly below Ja’Lynn in my mind. But, an NFL team with certain needs and preferences could easily think otherwise.
6. Jermaine Burton, Alabama (22.7 yrs, 6-0, 200, 9.54 RAS)
Jermaine should be on the field for one thing in the NFL- speed. He jumps off the line, gets going, and is gone over the mountain before you turn your head to see where he went. Others will put up a faster combine 40 than he could, but it is his play speed tied in with his ball tracking that makes him a cut above. He will keep his speed up throughout the process of tracking, and bring edge and toughness at the catch point to pluck it or keep DB at bay with hands. I can’t say much for his vertical stem tree, as he rounds his slants pretty hard and drop his hips well on hitches. So, he will probably be a sparse but efficient deep target, with some DAMN plays. In my humble opinion, he’s a dawg.
Y RECEIVERS (SLOT)
1. Ricky Pearsall, Florida (23.4 yrs old, 6-1, 193, 9.78 RAS)
Another player with instant speed, great ability to shift weight and cut, and a penchant for setting up and getting through his routes. Like McConkey, I can see him being good enough at certain things to play flanker as well as slot. The one thing about Pearsall that makes me want him to stay inside is how good of a zone beater he is paired with his ever-so-slightly slow processing for deep safety coverage. He also has such good movement skills and explosive athleticism that I’d want him as motion man, taking handoffs, and getting tunnel screens. So, he is probably more than just slot, but his role should be underneath presence, zone beater, seam stretcher.
2. Malachi Corley, Western Kentucky (21.9 yrs, 5-10.5, 215, N/A RAS)
Malachi is probably the most unique profile in this class. He listed at 5-10.5, 215 at the combine, and is currently just under 22 years old. Also unique was his usage- he essentially starred as a wide back, catching tons and tons of screens with at least 3 players out in front of him blocking. At the Senior Bowl, he showed off his quicks and power on his individual routes. This can’t be projected right onto the NFL; what can is his strong hands, solid routes from the slot, and dynamic ability with the ball in his hands. He is a bowling ball, and the screens he got were designed so he could stay on a downhill gradient across his blocks and hit that gap with momentum. He should NOT be played on the boundary, so he is probably the first real slot guy that couldn’t play outside. Regardless, he could be a reliable hands catcher in the middle and a fun piece to move around and test soft spots in the defense.
3. Malik Washington, Virginia (23.2 yrs, 5-9, 192, 8.38 RAS)
Like Malachi, Malik should be a slot-only guy in the NFL solely because his traits match up perfectly with what NFL teams look for in the middle- quickness, play strength, quick thinking, strong hands, small size to get lost in traffic, and smooth transition to RAC. he’s a bit older at 23, but I don’t see why he couldn’t play right away a la Josh Downs. He had over 100 catches last year at Virginia, so getting taken by a team that runs a lot of 10 personnel should be a perfect transition for him. Albeit devoid of a bit of explosiveness, he is a dependable guy to have underneath and would be a good, dependable safety valve option who can turn upfield and break a tackle to reach a 1st down if need be.
4. Roman Wilson, Michigan (22.7 yrs, 5-10, 186, N/A RAS)
Roman is an interesting prospect. He is used a lot from the slot, specifically as the motion man. The Michigan offense is pretty regimented; he had only 48 catches last year as the headlining receiver for the team. he shows great details through his routes, staying completely within the confines of how he should move in order to stay on time with the play. He ended up getting a lot of his catches on flare outs and veer routes as a result. So, I can see him being used underneath as a consistent, dependable hands route runner. He struggled mightily getting downfield, where he basically gets swallowed by DBs and doesn’t have the play strength, size, or speed to uncover from there. We know he’s a hard worker, though, and will be a great locker room pickup for whoever takes him.
5. Jamari Thrash, Louisville (23.2 yrs, 5-11.5, 185, 6.3 RAS)
I have watched a few slot guys with good technical skills that lack in physical talent (KJ Hill being my favorite). I always assume that having those traits for separation, patience, and timing will instantly translate, regardless of athleticism. I am wrong, over and over. athleticism is superiorly important, as it gives the context to what an athlete is capable of doing on the football field. Less explosive, less opportunities. Thrash is a solid player who is dependable underneath and stars on hitches and routes where he can get right into the body of the DB and stem from there. But, I wouldn’t be betting the house on him or trying to get him to feature in the slot. I think he is solid depth for a team, and hopefully he can stick on some rosters for a while.
RED FLAG PILE
A keen eye would notice I am missing a few pretty notable names. This is for good reason, and let me know if you’re inclined to agree.
This is NOT a moratorium on these players’ NFL careers, as they WILL get drafted and most likely earlier than many of the players on my list. I, personally, have qualms with these guys games that take them off my draft board. Receiver is so deep that one can afford to do so.
Xavier Legette, (23.1 yrs, 6-1, 223, 9.91 RAS)
He is a darling for many and jumped straight out of Lucas Oil at the combine. When I watch the tape, I get very scared. What he does well has to do with his athleticism- he gets vertical fast, he has the ability to jump, he has strong hands. What he is missing are all of the things that get you VERY worried about a 23 year old prospect.
He doesn’t process the coverage in front of him quickly, and thus every route he runs is exactly what’s on the play sheet. There isn’t any ingenuity or physical knowledge used to tailor his routes to set up the DB in front of him. That means when he does get vertical, the DB is close behind.
Though he CAN jump high, he chooses the wrong times to do it. He lacks in ball tracking, and that makes it supremely difficult to jockey position and get your base under you to get directly vertical. We saw it with DK at Ole Miss, it’s similar here. At South Carolina, he played the Bryan Edwards role. Does anyone remember Bryan Edwards? Athletic size freak with good hands who caught a lot of screens? Yea, he was drafted in the 3rd round and went away as quick as he came.
He lacks body control. There is one specific play where Legette is on a crosser and the ball comes in and he has to lift off his feet and reach back to catch it. Many are calling this fantastic body control, but all I see is him making the catch wayyy more difficult than it has to be. If he could flip his hips and keep his stride going (like many of the receivers in this class do naturally), that would be a quick catch and run.
I completely understand looking past the bad for his athletic traits, but what I see tells me that he is not a ++ processor of the game of football and therefore faces a bigger uphill battle in becoming an effective player in an NFL offense. Somewhere that doesn’t force him to be ‘the guy’ or put him on technical, detailed routes would be best. Give him the Rashee Rice treatment.
Tez Walker, North Carolina (22.7 yrs, 6-1.5, 193, 9.86 RAS)
Tez is a pure deep threat that lacks the play strength and downfield jockey technique to be a dependable and consistent player. He is very much not in his element operating underneath, and had a LOT of his big touchdowns come as a result of an unearthly Drake Maye throw. He is not a volume guy and probably won’t be extremely efficient when the ball does come his way. When I watch, I see Dyami Brown. 3rd round product, deep ball threat, faster than he should be at his height, but lacks separation and relies totally on speed to win. Now, he’s fighting for a roster spot. I could see a similar situation for Tez, though I hope he can get better and find his way.
Xavier Worthy, Texas (20.8, 5-11, 166, 9.34 RAS)
That’s right, Mr. 40 yard dash himself. It says something that he set the record in the dash and the 20 yard split, and says even more that while doing that he did not max out his RAS. This is because his size headlines everything. He doesn’t play as small as he weighs, as there are plays on tape of him absorbing hits and rebounding back. My problem with him is similar to Tez, in that he wins with speed exclusively. He has a nasty rocker step, but that is his only effective uncovering technique. Being as fast and light as he is, you’d think he moves like lightning in the open field, but he isn’t a huge plus. He can’t consistently evade tackles and never pops as much as you’d expect with the ball in his hands. I don’t think he strikes fear into DBs, as he can’t really effectively use all of his speed unless he is running a go. He is way too loose when getting his frame back to the QB, and it opens up DBs to undercut him on crossers. Overall, he is not my type of receiver and I would pass on him in the draft. He is one of the youngest in the draft, though, so never count him out on growing up, filling out, and getting better.