2024 QB Rankings, In Depth

Another year, another draft revolving around the signal callers. Let's see what makes them tick.

QB has to be the toughest position to evaluate. To play the position is to keep the tasks of every player on offense in mind while operating at a high level in your own duties. And with the schism between the playstyle of college and the NFL getting larger, more and more projection is necessary.

I used rankings by role in my recent receivers breakdown (check it out), but I think that is pretty useless in this spot- a QB doesn’t move around the formation. They do, however, have many traits and characteristics that make them better or worse in every facet of the game. So, I’m going to focus on traits and capability; they will be evident all over the tape. This is for the top 6 QBs in the class, any more and this post would be a book.

1.

Yes, I do agree with the consensus here. When you turn on a USC game, it’s hard not to. Caleb is processing the field at near Spiderman levels. He is instant and explosive to turn away from pressure; his balance and a low-built base let him twist and turn like a dreidel. You see the Looney Tunes-type plays Kyler Murray makes to escape pressure? Imagine he grew 4 inches and filled out more- that’s Caleb.

Some have made this into a knock- that he won’t take the check-down or easy throw and instead makes a risky play. Well sue him! He executes! I think we have learned through the history of ridiculous specimen QBs (Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, even Jordan Love) that the ability to make an insane play does not indicate a bad processor who is completely missing the underneath safety valve or crosser through the middle. To ‘pass something up’ is to have the knowledge it is open and make the choice to go for more. In todays NFL, that is what separates the BEST QBs from the GOOD QBs. If you were an NFL caliber QB (assumedly a top 15 one, at that), then I think stunting on a bunch of college kids instead of dink and dunking for meager yards would come naturally to you, too.

Sorry, I got a little off track there. Now I’m all worked up. Just please, throw out anything you read that says Williams’ zany playmaking will make it hard for him to settle in the NFL. Williams has the loosest and most live arm in the draft. Part of why he was so successful outside of the pocket (#1 outside of pocket thrower, per PFF) was that he could make a throw from any arm slot at any time. I think his short arms contribute to this success, as he is a thrower from the shoulder and body and cannot rely on the whip from a long arm to generate RPMs on the ball.

He is best operating from the gun having his receivers spread out. His mechanics for everything are fantastic, though- many players (ahem, Zach Wilson) that come from wide-open offenses struggle when they are under center or off PA with their back to the defense, but I don’t see any problems with Caleb in those regards. He gets his head around quickly, stays in control, and makes something happen. I think we will see a much more poised QB if he can get even an inkling more protection than USC could offer him.

The only knock I have on him is that although many analysts like the touch he has in his lofted passes, I think because of how much torque he can get and how short his arms are he has a bit of a struggle getting some air under the ball to bucket drop it to the receiver. He still does it, but the angle in which it comes is a bit lower than you’d like. It’s like a short barrel compared to a sniper- plenty of power, but you lose a bit of precision without the extra rifling. I will never doubt his ability to get the ball to any location, though- let’s just see what this leads to in the NFL.

PROSPECT GRADE: EARLY 1ST RD TALENT

In SF Dynasty: he should be pick 1. undisputed. Book it.

2.

Drake Maye is a fantastic prospect; him and Caleb Williams are solidly 1 tier above Jayden Daniels. He brings prototype size and backs it up with ++ athleticism and ability to eat up yards or destroy angles in the open field. There was 1 play I watched where he took off toward the boundary and made a hard cut in 2 steps that made 2 defenders do the splits on his way to a diving 1st down. He does not possess the same jittery footwork as Caleb Williams; his feet are much more predisposed to set him up for the throw to the 1st read. But, he is tall and has long legs that can giddy up. Justin Herbert has comparable size and speed, so think of Maye as being similar, just a hair more agile.

He is a smooth processor, never losing his head and keeping his eyes downfield even when flushed from the pocket. The UNC offense was big into spread, and short on talent. He ran mostly from the gun but did significant damage off PA. His massive arm is perfect for making defenders pay for misstepping. While Williams has the short arms with a lot of torque, Maye has the long arms with a lot of power and touch. He shows layered throws to every level of the field as well as an instinctive trigger for when he sees his man flash open. He can absolutely rip a ball into tight coverage if need be, and his anticipation of the location of defenders makes it hard to trick or intercept him. He also reads leverage quickly and correctly, placing the ball to the receiver away from the closing DB or right on his body when on a timing route.

He sometimes has a tendency to stick on his 1st read and hope they get open, but I believe that is a product of lack of talent as he has many plays where he gets through 3 reads and to the checkdown.

Under pressure, Drake Maye is an absolute killer. He quickly IDs blitzes and throws right behind them, rendering big pass rush downs completely fruitless for the defense. Before the ball gets snapped, he has a good idea of what the defensive front will do, how the safeties are placed, and what shade the CBs are playing. This pre-snap processing is SUPER important for NFL success because every defensive concept is more complicated in the NFL. These QBs have to be able to move from reading a simple cover 2 in college to IDing nickels, safety rotations, disguises, and stunts. If they already struggle a bit, it will most likely take some time to get up to speed for the NFL (if they ever can). This is one of the reasons Maye and Williams are in their own tier.

So far in this evaluation, I can see you asking: “If Drake Maye has all this to his game, what makes Caleb Williams #1?”. The answer is simple- footwork. I talked about Calebs’ quick feet and good base for throwing, and Drake Maye does not lack that. he DOES get a little bit too far onto his back foot, and it leads to his front foot being lifted too much; hes tipped backwards, toward the sky. That sounds pretty insignificant, but it can make a sizeable difference in the outcome of a play. When Drake is too lax in moving his feet in tandem with his eyes through his progressions, he can end up being a bit slow to a throwing window, even though his throwing motion is efficient. It can also lead to sailing throws when a receiver flashes open late and he has to adjust on the fly. This is where the ‘inconsistent accuracy’ knocks come in- when he is off target, it’s because he either set his front foot to wide or didn’t get his hips around in time. This is not a chronic issue that cannot be fixed, and therefore this knock is wildly overblown.

I make this sound like a life and death issue, but it is not. It is simply a consideration, and the NFL team that takes him will work with him on things like these. I don’t want to start naming names, so let’s just say there are some very successful QBs in the league who were moved down draft boards for bad footwork. One of them sounds just a liiiiitttle bit like Kermit. Hope that doesn’t give away too much.

PROSPECT GRADE: EARLY 1ST RD TALENT

In SF Dynasty: I am happily taking him at 2, right behind Caleb. Don’t go MHJ unless you’re in a 10 team league with QBs galore available.

3.

Boy, this guy is fun to watch. He produces so many highlight plays, for himself and for anybody lucky enough to tackle him. He seems to invite bone crunching hits, and doesn’t go out of his way to avoid them. But, he pops up right after every single time. Still, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a QB get bounced around as much as him. He’s been picked up in midair and held like a baby, physically ejected out of a gap by a nose tackle, and ground pounded like a sack of flour in your backyard practicing wrestling moves.

Let’s be for real, though- Daniels has a lot of discourse around him, and it is for sure a result of how electric he is running the ball. He isn’t laterally agile and aware like Lamar, or scuttling and quick like Kyler. He is his own version of fast- Jayden. He explodes out of the pocket and keeps his pace as far as he needs to go, utilizing rounded curvilinear movement to beat angles while keeping speed. When he needs to jump cut or get lateral fast, he jumps. That’s right, on more than a few occasions he genuinely leaves his feet and tosses himself sideways. To his credit, there are instances he deftly evades tackles and picks up crucial yards. To his detriment, these plays are where he gets smacked. Let’s not take away from the point too much, though- he is a ++++ runner, and a good athlete. Adding weight would probably do good for him, but I believe his NFL team will have to live with his stature and some missed games.

As a processor, Jayden Daniels comes in solidly below Williams and Maye. LSU had him in a spread, so he was checking safeties and making multiple reads on most plays. This is good experience to have, as it’s much harder to do with less reps. However, what best describes his processing is inconsistent. He carved up bad college defenses with throws from the pocket, but LSU and its great route designs had a lot to do with that. When he played better competition, there was some glaringly bad. He is accurate in delivery, but sometimes never sees a place to deliver. There are plays where his first read gets wide open and he completely passes it up. When the play design is carried out successfully, he generally can make a good throw and gain some yards. But, when anything is off sequence or new information is presented, he doesn’t really have any answers from the pocket. His arm slot doesn’t change at all, making it nearly impossible for him to make a good throw in traffic on the run. He also isn’t confident moving up in the pocket or stepping into his throws with imminent collapse. For someone that had around a 30% pressure to sack ratio (with Sam Howell being right below him- woof), that is really tough. When the only recourse you have to turn a play positive is your legs, you are going to struggle against the grizzly competition in the NFL.

I think the situation definitely affects his ability to process information. I mean, it does for every human on Earth. But, I think we’d all like our surgeons, firefighters, and Quarterbacks to be able to operate effectively through high stress. He does not have tape that shows him working through tough reads as a passer, because he will just take off. Is this a crutch he can afford to abandon in order to better operate within the offense as a passer? If not, his outlook going into the league is a bit dreary.

My biggest note for Jayden Daniels— Trust yourself. I have seen multiple instances now where Jayden hits his back foot on his drop and has his guy open and still takes an extra hitch to let go of the ball. Is he not seeing what he is staring at? These usually come on throws to the short middle vs zone, so my theory is that he is a bit wary of spies or hook defenders who are keying him. The thing is, he has enough zip to slot that ball in, and if he trusted his eyes he could get it there in more than enough time. My hope is this extra second Daniels takes to get the ball out on timing routes isn’t an inherent issue with his processing, and is instead a symptom of being too careful. If he can up his confidence and fall into a situation where he is surrounded by smart route runners, I can see his inconsistency melt away. BUT, if he cannot shirk his slow ticking eyes, he may just sink into the quicksand that swallows quarterbacks up year in and year out.

PROSPECT GRADE: MID 2ND RD TALENT

SF Dynasty: We know that running QBs are cheat codes; he can be taken happily anywhere from pick 6 and after- I do take MHJ, Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze before him, depending on team need. Move up or down based on how hard it is to acquire QB in your league. Go with the chalk of taking him 1.04 and before at your own risk- I won’t be doing it, but MANY fantasy analysts seem giddy to do so. Screw it though, right? Justin Fields gave dynasty teams some points for like 3 years or so. Who cares if he can’t effectively play QB? (haha)

4.

The Vikings seem keen on trading up to get this guy way earlier than he was expected to be when the college season closed out. When you flip on the tape, you can see some of the reasons why.

JJ is an adequate athlete, and can use his legs to get out of trouble. He picks and chooses when to try to push for yards because he knows he needs to have a good runway to beat defenders in the open field. He has good curvilinear movement and swively hips. He was used on QB power runs at Michigan, but not extensively. Basically, he can do what you need him to do with his legs, but they will not be relied upon as a serious means of gaining yardage.

What JJ CAN offer in spades is great footwork, timing, and an eye for leverage. He was not relied on to make full-field reads or to throw guys open at MICH; that was not how they won football games. They won with the run, tied to efficient throwing and very few turnover-worthy plays (Shanahan system baby!). Regardless, in the throws he had against man he showed good touch to get it to the receiver on the opposite side of the defender. Against zone, he gets through his drops quickly, hits his back foot, and chucks it. The ball comes out with pop and he is generally pinpoint accurate on short-med throws. Within the confines of his offense, he is efficient, capable, and has answers to new information.

McCarthy’s 5 and 7 step drops are crisp, and he maintains that good footwork when rolling out. He has some zip on the ball from torque off his back foot. He rolls in order to extend the play, in tandem with the direction of receivers routes. He doesn’t panic outside of the pocket and he keeps eyes downfield, but he has a tendency to stick with the running throw even when he has time to reset his base and put his body behind it. This leads to him shorting the ball into the dirt at times.

Against the blitz, JJ is a calm and collected operator. He has underrated mobility in the pocket and has quick reactions to defenders closing. This intensity will only go up in the NFL, though; his ability to find blitzes pre-snap is a question mark. He moves to find new throwing lanes when faced with pressure, or stands tall and puts his body into a throw if he thinks he can get it off before being hit (which is great). He is not afraid of the hits; much the opposite. What I would like to see (and so would NFL scouts) is him replace blitzes by putting the ball right behind the pressure. He does not seem to have the inclination to do this when he is playing, and I’m not sure if that’s a scheme thing or if that is a sort of panic in and of itself.

Overall, McCarthy is a capable QB who shows good timing, footwork, and zip on his balls when in sequence. He is an adequate athlete who had limited responsibilities as a passer and processor in college. He reads leverage well and can get the ball to his receivers vs. man, but does not possess otherworldly arm talent that could bail him out of bad situations. It is a question mark what his capabilities are in a more complicated offense. But, if he can get as comfortable in his spot in the NFL as he was at MICH, he could be a ++ contributor and consistent presence as a signal caller. Calling him ‘pro-ready’ can only be referring to his feet. He is not at the NFL level in reading safeties and making decisions- surround him with people that can help him with that, and we may have ourselves a good player who will be around for a while.

PROSPECT GRADE- LATE 2ND RD TALENT

SF Dynasty: I have JJ my 12th prospect on the board, directly behind AD Mitchell. Again, adjust based on how hard it is to get QB- he has the upside to be a low end QB1. If he goes to the Vikings within the top 10 picks, he will get drafted very high (probably 1.06-1.07 in most drafts). You’ll have to make the decision whether he is someone you’d like to stake an early pick in a very talented draft on.

5.

Penix is a gunslinger in every sense of the word. His six-shooter is his left arm, and he trusts it with his life. That means he lives fast and he dies hard. He played in an NFL-style offense that was designed by one of the best minds in college football and executed by a top 2 (if not one) receiver room. His highlight tape will blow you away, but it is far from the full picture. Let’s dig in.

Michael Penix has multiple tools that will make him a hot topic for NFL teams- a laserbeam arm, pinpoint accuracy at all levels of the field, and comfort and poise in the pocket. He excels most vs. man, where he routinely punishes defenders for having their back to the ball by deftly placing it where only the receiver can find it. He has a quick trigger, and his answer to a closing rusher is to fire the ball to his target. That’s why he has such a low sack percentage when faced with pressure- he has no qualms in letting it fly, for better or worse.

He usually starts his reads by checking the safeties and trickles down from there. Again, fantastic route design was in all of his plays, and he was able to work with a LOT of bunch sets and two-man games that schemed receivers open in the intermediate part of the field. This made his decisions easier, but he still executed them at a high level. He will readily test the mettle of defenders by giving his receivers fair shot throws, and they would come down with them more often than not. There must be something good to be said about knowing where your guy is, whether they have a good shot at a jump ball from their position, and delivering the ball in the best place for them. He is always aware of his receivers positioning and what they should be doing on their routes, and this makes it easier for him to bail himself out with an advantageous toss-up throw that saves a sack. It’s like his safety valve wasn’t a checkdown, it was wherever Rome Odunze was (haha).

Penix has a unique way of throwing the football. He is all arm and gets major RPMs generated just by flicking his wrist. The thing with this motion is that it is almost predicated on loose footwork- to get that much power behind the ball without stepping into your throws means you have to take a wider step toward the sideline than quarterbacks are taught to. Generally, the name of the game for accuracy is to step directly towards your target and get your hips behind the throw, generating push off your back foot. Penix leans more towards the twisting motion of the hips and generates torque from his front foot, and it has worked enough for him to be one of the best pure throwers of the ball in the nation.

Let’s talk about where he gets in trouble as a result of this zany motion. He has good, light footwork when taking 5 step drops. From there, it is a rollercoaster. Since he relies heavily on his arm and doesn’t push his body into his throws, he will fall away from pressure when under duress- this leads to sailing it out of bounds or shorting it into the dirt. When presented with a play window that is closing fast, he can react quickly with his mind but not his feet. There are multiple plays where he’ll make the right call in falling off his first read and getting it to his second, but his footwork is a little muddy in tracking his eyes and he oversets or steps so widely that he sails the ball way over the receivers’ head. This is a consistency that shows up on tape, and being as old as he is, it is troubling.

Penix, in line with his gunslinging, will hang around in the pocket as long as possible in order to let receivers uncover. This is a great trait if you can maneuver to open new passing lanes or get to your checkdown in the worst case scenario, but Penix is all gas and no brakes. If he wants to get it down the field, gods be damned he is going to do it. He will lean on his offensive line and keep his eyes on his first read until a rusher is in his face. This was a boon with all the surrounding talent he had, but the NFL is going to make every throwing window shorter. In being so focused on routes downfield, the checkdown does not feel natural to him. It is almost like he is surprised when he gets through his reads and the check-down is open. I would call this forcing things, and it will not go his way in the NFL as much as it did at UW. If he got to a place with an elite receiver, he could do a lot of damage in tandem with them. Make mistakes, yes. But lots of damage, too.

All in all, Michael Penix is a trick-shotter at heart, and plays quarterback like I play Red Dead Redemption- shoot anything that moves. He is pinpoint accurate, confident in his big arm, and good at reading leverage and giving his guys the most opportunity to come down with the football. In anything other than a clean pocket, his footwork holds him back from reaching consistent accuracy from all platforms. Pressure can disrupt his process and cause turnover-worthy plays, but he does not succumb to sacks at a high clip. At his age, I think you have to live and die by how he is now, with minimal improvement- this is because his odd motion makes him who he is.

Though he will be up and down, Penix is the 3rd best pure thrower of the football in this class and I think we deserve to see him get a shot to start in the NFL. I would not sell the farm for him, nor give him preferential looks based on his college resume. Throw him into the thick of things and see how he can operate without his fantastic surrounding cast at UW. He can get the ball to a spot better than every backup in the NFL right now.

PROSPECT GRADE- MID 3RD RD TALENT

SF Dynasty- He’ll probably go at the beginning of the second round in rookie drafts if he’s drafted early in April. He would be super fun to have on your team, and there will be big ups and downs. There will be more talented and younger players in that range, so don’t feel terrible for passing on him. He’s the only QB I would take a chance on in that early 2nd range.

6.

Bo Nix is a well-traveled man. He has played 5 years in college- starting at Auburn, then trekking up to Oregon for another opportunity to play with a good team. 24 year old QBs coming into the league generally don’t have good standing, as those good enough to get picked in the NFL usually leave as soon as possible to get that bag. NIL changed the sphere of college football a bit, but Nix is definitely in the vein of quarterbacks who didn’t declare for the draft for good reason.

Nix has absolutely gotten better since his days at Auburn. But, better is relative. He is definitely more ready than ever to enter the NFL, but there is a lot of up and down with his game.

What first sticks out to me as I go through film is how muddy Nix’s feet are. He is slow through his drops and is way too statue-esque looking downfield. It isn’t that he doesn’t move, he is fully capable of breaking the pocket and reading the field on the run. It’s that he has all his weight on his feet at all times, so it is difficult for him to hit his back foot on a 5 step drop and get his body and momentum through the ball on the throw. More than likely, he will get onto his back foot and be almost upright when he lets go of the ball- this is bad for velocity, and shows he is sort of rushing to get the throw off with timing because his feet arent as fast as his eyes. Another problem this raises is oversetting, where he will step into a pump fake and then be unable to release and throw it to a different receiver with pace and timing; because his foot is planted so strongly in the ground already. He either overextends or underextends consistently.

I see similar things on his PA dropbacks. The offense he ran with the Ducks definitely has something to do with this, as it was a lot of tempo play action gun throws. But his sloppy feet show up on regular shotgun dropbacks too. When faced with a closing pocket, he retreats- to the point he’s 10-11 yards behind the line of scrimmage. This severely limits his downfield throwing, and he knows it because he will pass up deeper options for underneath throws in those situations. When getting squeezed, he will also resort to throwing off his back foot and short the ball to his target.

Though these are definitely negative traits, it seems to me the reason he is making these off-balance or weak throws is because he is processing his receivers’ leverage quicker than he can react. He will see a man flash open or get a DB turned around and instantly try to pull the trigger, which is good. He rarely sets himself to push into that throw, which is bad. At the end of the day, I still want to credit him with his capability in keeping receivers routes and their timing in mind throughout the entire play.

Let’s go a little more toward the positive here. Nix is a capable runner and athlete, who is able to take advantage of an edge collapsing on read options and can evade traffic to escape closing pockets. He reads leverage well, and can throw with anticipation over the top if he sees the numbers on the safeties jersey. He was not a huge negative for the Ducks, but he for damn sure was not their hero.

All in all, I do not believe Bo Nix has come far enough in his college career to be a plus starter in the NFL. He shows capable processing and a good enough arm to run a west coast style system that leans on RPOs and gun action, but his footwork is very lacking, and accuracy anywhere other than the short-middle of the field can be inconsistent. Still, I believe Bo Nix is a fully capable backup and can stick around on NFL rosters for a good while.

PROSPECT GRADE- LATE 3RD-EARLY 4TH RD TALENT

SF Dynasty: Because of his college numbers, he may go way earlier than we expect him to, and I would recommend playing up how amazing he is to your league-mates so somebody falls into the trap of reaching for him in rookie drafts. I will not be taking him, and I refuse to give a fair ADP to him because I know for a fact he will go somewhere in the 2nd round of rookie drafts.

This piece has gotten a bit long, and there is a definite drop in quality of quarterback after Nix. The next guys are Spencer Rattler, Michael Pratt, Joe Milton, and Sam Hartman. I may talk about them in a follow up, but they are all later picks.

Feel free to reach out to me and let me know if you agree/disagree or if you would like me to talk about anything in the NFL sphere!